One of the world’s largest media agencies has cut its forecast for global advertising spending in 2009, casting doubt on hopes of a near-term recovery for broadcasters and publishers in western markets.

Carat, Aegis’s media agency, now expects worldwide advertising expenditure to fall 9.8 per cent this year, having forecast a 5.8 per cent decline in March.

The US and western Europe face the most significant downgrade, with ad spend expected to drop 16.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent respectively in 2009.

But the Russian ad market – which grew by 16.6 per cent last year – is now expected to plummet 21.9 per cent in 2009.

Carat nudged up its global forecasts for 2010 to growth of 1 per cent from 0.7 per cent, but western Europe and the US are still expected to decline next year.

The downbeat outlook comes as the chiefs of WPP and Havas, rivals to Aegis, warned that they saw few signs of recovery in the media markets.

Fernando Rodés Vilà, Havas chief executive, said on Wednesday that he did not see “solid signs” of an upturn. He told Reuters he expects a 7 to 11 per cent decline in worldwide advertising this year.

The admen’s gloom contrasts with hope at media owners such as ITV, JCDecaux and News Corporation that the bottom of the market had been reached.

Yet the internet is the only medium expected to show growth this year, albeit at just 1 per cent, after 16.4 per cent growth in 2008.

Carat reduced its forecast for television advertising’s decline from 3.7 per cent to 6.3 per cent in 2009 globally. Newspapers and magazines are projected to fall around 17 per cent, while radio could fall 12.4 per cent.

That shift would see online reach a 10 per cent share of worldwide advertising spend for the first time this year.

In the first half of 2009, the UK became the first major media market where online overtook TV to become the largest advertising platform, according to PwC and the Internet Advertising Bureau.

As a result of the perilous declines in advertising revenues, publishers are looking to new sources of revenue. A UK poll of the Association of Online Publishers found 70 per cent expect to charge for accessing content on the web within the next year.

The UK is set to see total ad spend fall 11.7 per cent this year, according to Carat, with only internet and cinema advertising escaping a double-digit decline. A modest recovery of 1.4 per cent growth is expected in the UK in 2010, while the US ad market will drop another 2.6 per cent.

“We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets” next year, said Mr Buhlmann. “Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level.”

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