One of the world’s largest media agencies has cut its forecast for global advertising spending in 2009, casting doubt on hopes of a near-term recovery for broadcasters and publishers in western markets.

Carat, Aegis’s media agency, now expects worldwide advertising expenditure to fall 9.8 per cent this year, having forecast a 5.8 per cent decline in March.

The US and western Europe face the most significant downgrade, with ad spend expected to drop 16.3 per cent and 11.0 per cent respectively in 2009.

But the Russian ad market – which grew by 16.6 per cent last year – is now expected to plummet 21.9 per cent in 2009.

Carat nudged up its global forecasts for 2010 to growth of 1 per cent from 0.7 per cent, but western Europe and the US are still expected to decline next year.

The downbeat outlook comes as the chiefs of WPP and Havas, rivals to Aegis, warned that they saw few signs of recovery in the media markets.

Fernando Rodés Vilà, Havas chief executive, said on Wednesday that he did not see “solid signs” of an upturn. He told Reuters he expects a 7 to 11 per cent decline in worldwide advertising this year.

The admen’s gloom contrasts with hope at media owners such as ITV, JCDecaux and News Corporation that the bottom of the market had been reached.

Yet the internet is the only medium expected to show growth this year, albeit at just 1 per cent, after 16.4 per cent growth in 2008.

Carat reduced its forecast for television advertising’s decline from 3.7 per cent to 6.3 per cent in 2009 globally. Newspapers and magazines are projected to fall around 17 per cent, while radio could fall 12.4 per cent.

That shift would see online reach a 10 per cent share of worldwide advertising spend for the first time this year.

In the first half of 2009, the UK became the first major media market where online overtook TV to become the largest advertising platform, according to PwC and the Internet Advertising Bureau.

As a result of the perilous declines in advertising revenues, publishers are looking to new sources of revenue. A UK poll of the Association of Online Publishers found 70 per cent expect to charge for accessing content on the web within the next year.

The UK is set to see total ad spend fall 11.7 per cent this year, according to Carat, with only internet and cinema advertising escaping a double-digit decline. A modest recovery of 1.4 per cent growth is expected in the UK in 2010, while the US ad market will drop another 2.6 per cent.

“We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets” next year, said Mr Buhlmann. “Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level.”

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According to information received, at least once a month, read the news 77 percent of Russians surveyed – data RUmetrik. At POF and The Online Monitor figures are virtually identical – 65 percent and 66 percent of users are interested in news. About e-mail in the POF survey did not ask, according to the 2 other companies, e-mail use 74-78 percent of Internet users. Weather, according to their own data, interested 67-68,4 percent of users. Regarding search, the data vary: from 50 percent in POF, 69 percent have RUmetrik and up 81.4 percent at The Online Monitor.

Downloading and viewing, listening to audio recordings, videos and photos are interested in from 40 percent to 50 percent, post videos and photos 23-24 percent of users. Audio files at the same time publish a network of less than 10 percent of users. As for software, then spread his interest in upgrading or downloading – from 33 percent to 49 percent. Blogs and forums read 33-42 percent Runet, write to them – from 12 to 16 percent of respondents. In online gaming interest from 23 to 31 percent of users, online TV – from 16 percent to 19 percent. The acquaintance of a network of about 15 percent of respondents.

With regard to shopping online – they make from 17 percent to 21 percent of users, on average, every fifth. With regard to payment for goods and services, electronic money, then, according to various studies, the proportion ranges from 7 percent (FOM) up to 15.4 percent (The Online Monitor), the holding of other financial and banking transactions online – from 5 percent  (FOM) to 12,4 percent (RUmetrik).

For comparison, the report of foreign research team Pew Internet & American Life Project shows the usual daily activity of a global network of users outside of Russia. According to these data, the most common network service for Internet audience is e-mail – 60 percent of daily users check their electronic mailboxes. Their share in the last 7 years has increased by 15 percent.

Search the Internet popularity among users of a global network was on the 2 nd place with 49 percent of daily hits. According to Pew Internet, over 2002 popular Google, Yahoo, MSN and other such services grew by 69 percent. Reading the news, according to foreign reports, was in third position with 39 percent popularity, 30 percent are interested in the weather forecast online, 29 percent – are looking for information related to their hobbies, 28 percent – go to different pages for fun. Visit social networking sites ranked seventh (13 percent) in the list of daily activities of users.

Comparing the data on the daily activity of the Internet audience in Russia (RUmetrik ) abroad (Pew Internet), Rambler analysts have concluded that the significant difference in Internet audience regarding Internet search and e-mail-communication there. For example, 60 percent overseas and about 65 percent in Russia daily by e-mail, 49 percent are looking for information in a global network and 51,5 percent – specifically in RuNet. But reading the news every day Russians are paying attention to almost 2 times larger: 70 percent according to RUmetrik and 39 percent – Pew Internet. Weather in Russia are interested in 56.6 per cent against 30 percent of Internet users abroad.

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